Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates

Decision makers often must pool probability estimates from multiple experts before making a choice. Such pooling sometimes improves accuracy and other times diagnosticity. This article uses a cognitive model of the judge and the decision maker’s classification of the information to explain why. Given a very weak model of the judge, the important factor is the degree to which their information bases are independent. The article also relates this work to other models in the literature.  2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.